Radio today: Truck demand goes south - Any rumors?

[xycrazy]

We dumped a small fortune into our new house (75 year old farmhouse) during the last couple years. Full kitchen, dining, laundry, office remodel. Added another bathroom. Re-roofed (5500 square foot of roof, ouch), all new appliances, completely new HVAC system with AC/heatpump. All cash out of pocket and I'd much rather have that money right here in a tangible asset than floating around in the stock market. That's just me though, much rather own dirt, buildings and vehicles/equipment. That stuff will always have value IMO

It depends upon the location of the house. Friends of mine have homes in Seattle. Their homes appreciated by 500k in less than 2 years. Just insane. But we don't have the same market conditions everywhere. Think about what has happened in Detroit. You never know what's coming down the road. I know a realtor and she had 1.3 Million of equity in the house and had to sell for 900K. That's a pretty significant loss. It always depends on the personal situation. I totally understand that people feel more comfortable with less debt. I'm the same kind of person. However, sometimes it's important that we unlearn what we got taught. Example: I know people who don't use Credit Cards at all. Because they hate debt. I get it. However, they're leaving a lot of money on the table by not cashing in rewards for the money they spend anyway. As long as you pay off 100% before/after every statement you can receive a ton of money back. People often don't understand how to play the game. Play it smart and use the system. And so it is with the current inflation... people with debt will benefit from eroding debt through record high inflation. 8% inflation is melting your debt like ice cream in the sun over time... If you can't afford to pay the monthly rates... sure, don't do it. And I totally agree that paying NO debt is perfect peace of mind...
It's with everything in life: Make your choices

 

[firsttimetahoe]

5% is not low imho. Especially not when you consider how insanely high house prices are right now. I don't disagree with you when it comes to the impact on the stock market in a recession in general. However, there are sectors they do very well during a recession.

I just said that you have immediate access to money in the stock market as opposed to money sitting in a house. If the market changes and interest rates go up I can shift investments from growth stocks to bonds or high yield saving accounts. The FED is planning to rise interest rates in .5 increments after every fed meeting this year. We will have at least 6 meetings this year. That means an uptick in interest rates of another 3% at least. At this point one could easily put money in a high yield savings account without any risk. Also, there are always stocks during a recession which outperform the market. I'm not against a larger amount of down payment. But I'm against of putting all money in one basket and giving up flexibility. Which would be clearly the case here.

It sounds like you're not a big fan of the stock market. Granted. From a logical standpoint though you have much more flexibility to do with your money what you want.
Why do you think Warren Buffet doesn't invest in real estate at all but solely in the stock market since decades? He survived every downturn, every recession in the last decades and got richer and richer and richer... just saying...

You may want to take a look at the charts below. Never before have we seen interest rates skyrocketing like this. Right before the 2008 crash they were at the same level. We're on the way to a recession caused by the government and FED IMHO. Diversification of a portfolio is important imho. And the S&P 500 did very well during recession times... After a recession the S&P always reached new highs. You can't say that for the housing market per se. Think about Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, etc.

We have different meanings of historical. Historical to me isn't since 2008 like your chart dates back to. Look at mortgage rates in the early 2000s and 1990s. 5% isn't that bad. But we're not even at 5% either for averages....

Also, your theory of just dumping stocks to go to bonds is when the market changes is practical but very hard to do... timing the market is impossible. Retail investors almost always sell low and buy back in high - they have done so many studies on this. Plus, you never know how "low" things will go, so your chances of you buying back into the market at the trough is unlikely, you'll wait for a consistent uptick and by then you will already been well into the recovery when you're buying back in. You always want to DCA into the market and continue to buy in when things get harsh and decline....otherwise you need a crystal ball to continuously time the market as to the perfect time to sell and buy back in.

And I am a huge fan of the stock market, bond market and alternative investments. I just think you're giving horrible advice.

You should never try to meet continual short term capital commitments by investing the majority of your money in the stock market.... which is what your initial point was that you should get PMI and put down less of a down-payment, because you invest that money instead and out-earn in the market would PMI would be costing you. That is horrible advice. Ask any financial professional at any reputable firm - they'll tell you the same thing. And if anything, they'd rather you invest more money with them. But when you tell them your liquidity needs, they'll never recommend it.

 

[sickk21]

delete

 

[WalleyeMikeIII]

It's kinda flamey in here...this thread is way off topic now...was about gas prices...

Can we get back to Trucks?!?!

 

[R32driver]

It's kinda flamey in here...this thread is way off topic now...was about gas prices...

Can we get back to Trucks?!?!

As stated earlier I’d like a different truck but they’re still up there in price so I’m guessing demand is high. I’m looking in the $25-30k range and all you can find is high mileage light duty trucks for that money and that seems dumb. As soon as you look HD the prices jump and if you go diesel (real diesel, sorry babymax fans) the prices go insane

 

[xycrazy]

We have different meanings of historical. Historical to me isn't since 2008 like your chart dates back to. Look at mortgage rates in the early 2000s and 1990s. 5% isn't that bad. But we're not even at 5% either for averages....

Also, your theory of just dumping stocks to go to bonds is when the market changes is practical but very hard to do... timing the market is impossible. Retail investors almost always sell low and buy back in high - they have done so many studies on this. Plus, you never know how "low" things will go, so your chances of you buying back into the market at the trough is unlikely, you'll wait for a consistent uptick and by then you will already been well into the recovery when you're buying back in. You always want to DCA into the market and continue to buy in when things get harsh and decline....otherwise you need a crystal ball to continuously time the market as to the perfect time to sell and buy back in.

And I am a huge fan of the stock market, bond market and alternative investments. I just think you're giving horrible advice.

You should never try to meet continual short term capital commitments by investing the majority of your money in the stock market.... which is what your initial point was that you should get PMI and put down less of a down-payment, because you invest that money instead and out-earn in the market would PMI would be costing you. That is horrible advice. Ask any financial professional at any reputable firm - they'll tell you the same thing. And if anything, they'd rather you invest more money with them. But when you tell them your liquidity needs, they'll never recommend it.

The only thing that's horrible is that you recommend to put all eggs in one basket without even considering everyone's personal situation. Good example why most people don't should pay for wealth management folks but instead educate themselves. That's why I made 40% last year whereas others were happy that their wealth manager helped them to make 20% - before costs. BTW. I never said that I try to meet continual short term capital commitments by investing the majority of the money in the stock market. That's not the idea of diversification. I just said that it doesn't make sense to get rid of PMI by throwing thousands of good dollars on low interest debt when interest rates are that low (as you agreed to) while you could earn much more in alternative assets. Stock market is just ONE piece of it. We never talked about gold, silver, wood, copper, etc. Not even the inflationary impact on debt.
We never talked about using the saved down payment to buy a rental home, etc. etc. So the only one who gives obviously blind sided horrible advice is you. At least I haven't heard anything comprehensive that would convince me to hire someone like you. Good, that I don't need to. Now that we agree to disagree let's get back to the original topic.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

The only thing that's horrible is that you recommend to put all eggs in one basket without even considering everyone's personal situation. Good example why most people don't should pay for wealth management folks but instead educate themselves. That's why I made 40% last year whereas others were happy that their wealth manager helped them to make 20% - before costs. BTW. I never said that I try to meet continual short term capital commitments by investing the majority of the money in the stock market. That's not the idea of diversification. I just said that it doesn't make sense to get rid of PMI by throwing thousands of good dollars on low interest debt when interest rates are that low (as you agreed to) while you could earn much more in alternative assets. Stock market is just ONE piece of it. We never talked about gold, silver, wood, copper, etc. Not even the inflationary impact on debt.
We never talked about using the saved down payment to buy a rental home, etc. etc. So the only one who gives obviously blind sided horrible advice is you. At least I haven't heard anything comprehensive that would convince me to hire someone like you. Good, that I don't need to. Now that we agree to disagree let's get back to the original topic.

You're are all over the place. For the sake of the forum lets end it at my post.

 

[Polo08816]

One of the reasons I'm waiting until 2024 is because both the Ford Super Duty and the GM 3500 SRW gas HD pickups should be revised. With as large as half tons have become, I'm not sure if I see a point of buying one over a HD pickup if you're going to trailer. The real world fuel costs of a 1 ton 3500 6.6 gas is not that different from a 1500 with the 6.2 that requires premium fuel.

I don't necessarily need a 1/2 ton based full size SUV yet and would like to be able to see which market (full size SUV vs HD pickup truck) delivers more value for me by 2024.

 

[StephenPT]

One of the reasons I'm waiting until 2024 is because both the Ford Super Duty and the GM 3500 SRW gas HD pickups should be revised. With as large as half tons have become, I'm not sure if I see a point of buying one over a HD pickup if you're going to trailer. The real world fuel costs of a 1 ton 3500 6.6 gas is not that different from a 1500 with the 6.2 that requires premium fuel.

I don't necessarily need a 1/2 ton based full size SUV yet and would like to be able to see which market (full size SUV vs HD pickup truck) delivers more value for me by 2024.

If you're going to trailer a lot, then absolutely get a 3/4 ton. 1/2 tons are crippled by pathetic payload capacities. Once you put ~700lbs on the tongue of a half ton, depending on the trim level and options, you might only have another ~700lbs of payload capacity.

The 6.6 is a good towing engine. Adapted from the 6.0, it is a "simple" engine with no AFM/DFM. Lots of owners report upper teens mpg on the highway unloaded.

Probably the only downside to the HD platform is that the ride is going to be a bit more rough, especially when unloaded.

 

[Polo08816]

If you're going to trailer a lot, then absolutely get a 3/4 ton. 1/2 tons are crippled by pathetic payload capacities. Once you put ~700lbs on the tongue of a half ton, depending on the trim level and options, you might only have another ~700lbs of payload capacity.

The 6.6 is a good towing engine. Adapted from the 6.0, it is a "simple" engine with no AFM/DFM. Lots of owners report upper teens mpg on the highway unloaded.

Probably the only downside to the HD platform is that the ride is going to be a bit more rough, especially when unloaded.

I agree. It's too easy to exceed the rear axle weight rating on 1/2 ton chassis.

Although I will say that I would just opt for a 1 ton SRW gas.

With the way GM configures the rear suspension, the main difference between 3/4 ton and 1 ton is the overload springs which don't make contact with the chassis unless the rear of the vehicle is loaded. Theoretically, it should ride as well as a 3/4 ton.

What may make me lean towards the Ford Super Duty F350 is the possibility of the Pro Power On Board (inverter). That would be incredibly convenient for some tasks if you could have a 2.0- 2.4kW peak power source from the back of the vehicle.

What will be nice is the ability to not need to use WDH on a tilt bed car trailer if I'm going a shorter distance and keep the trailer weight below 6,000lbs. That would make hitching the trailer to the tow vehicle and loading up the track car a breeze at the end of a track weekend on Sunday. Also, if I ever decided to go with an enclosed car trailer at some point, I know I could do it with a HD pickup. A 20-22 foot enclosed car trailer towed by a 1/2 ton for longer distances is not as comfortable of a ride.

I'm hoping GM pairs the 10 speed auto with the 6.6 gas for 2024. It sure is a "simple" engine. If you blow it up, it only costs $3700 in parts alone to replace the engine with new parts from GM. That's probably why you don't find that many used engines for sale - at $3700 for a brand new engine, it's not worth the risk of paying the labor cost to put in an used engine that might have issues.

I'm used to street driving my track car with the Ohlins R&T suspension with pretty high spring rates. I've rode in HD pickups and I don't think it's really any worse.