2022 order cutoff to 2023 order-to-availability

[RVAHokie]

I'm not worried about missing out on features in a sense that I always need the newest features. I'm worried about missing out on features because I tend to keep my vehicles for 8-10+ years. So if there's a mid cycle refresh or enhancement that significant improves the electronics in a car, I'd wait for that because it might be another 3-4 years before another refresh. If I bought the pre mid cycle refresh, that vehicle would spend 1/3 of its usable life with an older interior/electronics. For someone who will tend to keep their vehicles the same way that I do, a year or two after a mid cycle refresh tends to be the optimal timing.

So the elephant in the room is what is the average individual or annual income of the typical Tahoe/Yukon/Suburban buyer?

I would imagine it the average family income has to be at least $400k/year in a rural or suburban area and probably another $100-200k on top of that for an urban area. Individual income is probably 225+k/year to be able to afford these vehicles.

Your numbers would make sense if people lived within their means, but they don't. The median income in 2020 was 67k. A lot of people who make below or low 6 figures are buying these cars without thinking twice. At least for trucks sometimes they have a truck allowance through work but I'd wager a healthy bet that lots of folks have a higher car payment than mortgage payment.

I make above your listed family income and I am still biting my nails to buy a 75k car.

 

[Elise201424]

Your math here is really interesting. I highly doubt that most people that have Yukon/ Tahoe/ Suburban are at $400k annual income.

 

[Polo08816]

2 years from now, buying a few thousand below MSRP may be the same price tag as buying at MSRP today. If you're always worried about missing out for new futures, you should be leasing and not buying where you can reset every 3 years.

And considering every dealer by me (except 1) within a 3 our drive radius is selling Tahoes, Yukons and Suburban's over MSRP and not a single one of those dealers has any inventory every... pretty much the only way I'd be able to get my hands on without custom ordering is if a deal fell through and I had to like the car that was available.i don't think income or inflation is relative to this segment of the car market.

I'm not worried about missing out on features in a sense that I always need the newest features. I'm worried about missing out on features because I tend to keep my vehicles for 8-10+ years. So if there's a mid cycle refresh or enhancement that significant improves the electronics in a car, I'd wait for that because it might be another 3-4 years before another refresh. If I bought the pre mid cycle refresh, that vehicle would spend 1/3 of its usable life with an older interior/electronics. For someone who will tend to keep their vehicles the same way that I do, a year or two after a mid cycle refresh tends to be the optimal timing.

So the elephant in the room is what is the average individual or annual income of the typical Tahoe/Yukon/Suburban buyer?

I would imagine it the average family income has to be at least $400k/year in a rural or suburban area and probably another $100-200k on top of that for an urban area. Individual income is probably 225+k/year to be able to afford these vehicles.

Your numbers would make sense if people lived within their means, but they don't. The median income in 2020 was 67k. A lot of people who make below or low 6 figures are buying these cars without thinking twice. At least for trucks sometimes they have a truck allowance through work but I'd wager a healthy bet that lots of folks have a higher car payment than mortgage payment.

I make above your listed family income and I am still biting my nails to buy a 75k car.

Your math here is really interesting. I highly doubt that most people that have Yukon/ Tahoe/ Suburban are at $400k annual income.

That's my point. I think income and inflation are still factors in this segment. I don't think that your consumers of the Yukon/Tahoe/Suburbans are restricted to an family income of $500+k. Otherwise, these vehicles wouldn't sell at the volume they do. Thus, I would imagine the majority of these purchases are financed and a substantial increase in the interest rate would affect sales.

 

[Polo08816]

Yep. These car's will only increase in price over time. They are becoming more in the class of a luxury vehicle than anything else. Sure they'll always be in a seperate class from the Escalade, like Ford Expedition will do with the Navigator, and won't reach that type of price tag. But as technology and the features improve over time, the cost of these vehicles will never start to go down or even remain the same. Even when the new Sequioa rolls out (top trim starts at over $70k btw) I don't see more competition driving down prices. And look at where Jeep priced the Wagoneer...

Yeah, but the actual selling price of the Jeep Wagoneers and Grand Wagoneers is much lower. I believe Koons Jeep out of Vienna, VA is allowing you to order Jeeps at 6% below invoice.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

I'm not worried about missing out on features in a sense that I always need the newest features. I'm worried about missing out on features because I tend to keep my vehicles for 8-10+ years. So if there's a mid cycle refresh or enhancement that significant improves the electronics in a car, I'd wait for that because it might be another 3-4 years before another refresh. If I bought the pre mid cycle refresh, that vehicle would spend 1/3 of its usable life with an older interior/electronics. For someone who will tend to keep their vehicles the same way that I do, a year or two after a mid cycle refresh tends to be the optimal timing.

So the elephant in the room is what is the average individual or annual income of the typical Tahoe/Yukon/Suburban buyer?

I would imagine it the average family income has to be at least $400k/year in a rural or suburban area and probably another $100-200k on top of that for an urban area. Individual income is probably 225+k/year to be able to afford these vehicles.

Electronics in these vehicles will only get outdated quicker and quicker.

Yeah, but the actual selling price of the Jeep Wagoneers and Grand Wagoneers is much lower. I believe Koons Jeep out of Vienna, VA is allowing you to order Jeeps at 6% below invoice.

It must be region specific because it is not by me.

 

[dkboggs]

Hoping some in-the-know folks have some answers - I think a lot of us are in the same boat. Hoping this thread can consolidate some of the questions/answers floating around.

As I understand it after digging in different places (including this awesome forum):

* Order cutoff for 22’s is end of April
* Orders accepted in April will have a TPW of June
* Orders for 23’s will begin in May w/ TPW of September
* Factories re-tool in July/August to prepare to build 23’s
* May orders begin rolling out in September

These are mostly rough dates - and of course, Covid (go away, already), supply chain issues, and chip shortages will affect these dates.

Questions:

* Do these timelines sound about right?
* Someone noted that suppliers have committed to the first batch of 23’s having full features - was this true for 22’s last year?
* Or will 23’s start off with missing features and retrofits?
* if GM has accepted orders for 22’s that have no TPW due to constraints, do they automatically roll over into 23’s and go to the front of the line?

I have a Denali w/ Premium pkg on order, but thanks to the full constraints list provided by @BrokerThis it seems like it’s a no-go for the rest of this model year.

I placed my order in early January - I’ve spoken to my dealer every 2-3 weeks, no news. I’ve recently started chat sessions with GM - no news. This is very frustrating!!!

 

[firsttimetahoe]

I don't think that your consumers of the Yukon/Tahoe/Suburbans are restricted to an family income of $500+k. Otherwise, these vehicles wouldn't sell at the volume they do.

Ofcourse they are not. $500k is a sily number.

A family with two wages earning 200,000 a year pays around 24% in federal income taxes. Lets round up and call it $50k in. Let’s use NY state (high tax bracket state) and say you owe another 10% in state taxes which is 10k in state taxes.

So you’re after tax earnings in an entire year is $140,000. That’s roughly $12k a month in income.

If I financed a $70k car entirely with zero down at around 2.5% APR my monthly payment is a little $1000. Seems affordable to me

 

[CASTLEDFW15]

I a, by no means a prof economist, but I would think thay any major desiGM changes especially ones that require a major factory overhaul and reprogramming should wait untiil at least MY 2024……. Constraints, options/packages, trim
levels yes but if the chip shortage is affecting global commerce…not just automotive but all commerce, especially electronics, make the best of what you have now. I believe that most consumers will either voluntarily accept the current models and……”Give a pass” to manufacturers and realizing their is not much of a choice. ….Except for cutting out the side vents of the lower fascia and making a insert for fog lights.

 

[CASTLEDFW15]

If the two cutouts in the lower front fascia near the cor is what I think they are I likely likey…….Hopefully return to Foglights.

 

[Polo08816]

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2022/04/chip-shortage-study-shows-half-of-consumers-would-postpone-vehicle-purchase/

The majority of the 2022 calendar year has been dominated by headlines regarding the global chip shortage, with automakers scrambling to shore up microchip supplies and keep production lines rolling amid strong consumer demand. Now, one recent study indicates that roughly half of consumers may postpone their vehicle purchase as a result of the chip shortage.

According to a recent report from *** Automotive, roughly 45 percent of consumers would postpone their vehicle purchase as the chip shortage drags on. That figure remains consistent with statistics recorded in November, and a drop compared to the 48 percent of consumers that said they would likely postpone a purchase in August of 2021. By comparison, 37 percent of consumers said they would postpone a purchase in April of 2021.

The insights were provided via *** Automotive research conducted between March 2nd and March 9th of 2022, with a sample population size of 242 individuals.

The *** Automotive research also indicates that consumers are now more aware of the chip shortage than previously, with 60 percent of consumers surveyed “very aware” of the shortage, as compared to just 28 percent in April of 2021. Just 2 percent of those surveyed had not heard of the chip shortage prior to the survey in March of 2022, as compared to 24 percent in April of 2021.

Along with greater awareness of the chip shortage, consumers are also more pessimistic about its long-term effects. Most consumers surveyed (57 percent) believe that the shortage will result in elevated vehicle prices even after the chip shortage has been resolved, while 39 percent believe that prices will return to pre-shortage levels, and 4 percent believe that prices will be lower than before. Additionally, most consumers surveyed (35 percent) believe that the chip shortage will last for at least another year, as compared to 20 percent who think the shortage will be resolved in 6 months and 18 percent who believe it will be resolved in the next 7 to 12 months. Twenty-seven percent of consumers surveyed said they did not know when the shortage will be resolved.

Finally, fewer consumers are now willing to pay over MSRP for a specific vehicle as compared to earlier in the chip shortage (28 percent now versus 33 percent in November), but those who would pay above MSRP would be willing to dole out an average of 20 percent over MSRP to get the vehicle they want.

Why pay a premium for a luxury purchase? If it's a necessity, it's different.