2022 order cutoff to 2023 order-to-availability

[firsttimetahoe]

I don't think it's that ugly but I think the Yukon Denali and Ford Expedition Limited Stealth are better looking.

Either way, the introduction of at least one or two "real" competitors to the segment - thereby doubling the options in the segment - will eventually have an impact on the class leader GM.

You spending $75k+ on a Denali or a Wagoneer?

You spending $100k+ on an Escalade or a Grand Wagoneer?

No brainer decisions to me....unless my biggest need was get me in whatever car I can drive as soon as possible.

 

[Polo08816]

You spending $75k+ on a Denali or a Wagoneer?

You spending $100k+ on an Escalade or a Grand Wagoneer?

No brainer decisions to me....unless my biggest need was get me in whatever car I can drive as soon as possible.

It's actually at or slightly below $80k for a Grand Wagoneer. There are dealers that are advertising 6% under invoice for factory orders.

Fortunately I can wait. I have a work car.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

It's actually at or slightly below $80k for a Grand Wagoneer. There are dealers that are advertising 6% under invoice for factory orders.

Fortunately I can wait. I have a work car.

I mean, on the Jeep website starting MSRP for the Series I is $88,640.

Without adding a single feature......

Where I live, I do no see a single dealer advertising anywhere below MSRP lol. For any brand of cars.

 

[Steebu]

Because the person who started this very thread seemed to put in all the work to compile this info…and from other posts since then that same timeframe seems to be consistent

If your order isn’t accepted by GM by the end of April, it’ll automatically get moved to a 2023. They don’t start taking official new orders for 2023s until May. By then if you wait to order, you’ll be behind a ton of people already who’s 2022s got moved to a 2023.

If you want a 2023, you should order it now. Don’t wait. Worst case scenario your 2022 gets picked up and you can just cancel it. Best case scenario you’ll be one of the top orders at your dealer for a 2023

I did a ton of research by talking to multiple dealers, scouring websites, watching Youtube clips, and even asking a co-worker's cousin who works at one of the GM factories in Michigan to gather up what info I could. I would just stress that the list is, at best, a fairly educated guess. I think it's important to note the caveat I put in my original post which was supplier shortages, Covid, war, inflation, etc. are all factors that could affect any of these timelines. Nothing is guaranteed.

Covid, for example, is affecting many Chinese suppliers.

War is affecting Xenon gas production in the Ukraine, which supplies some 60-70% of the world's supply needed for lasers that engrave chips.

There was an earthquake in Japan a few weeks ago that temporarily shut down two chip manufacturers. Coincidentally, I asked my local Toyota dealership how many Sequoias they thought they would get and they said, "Probably 1, maybe zero at this point. And don't even ask about the bZ4X."

One interesting tidbit from the YAA stream either yesterday or the day before: they indicated they heard rumblings that various manufacturers are shutting down 2022 production and saving up what they've got for fully-featured 2023 production. This is great news, if true, but until we hear confirmation I wouldn't be on it.

So in summary: let's keep our fingers crossed for a best-case scenario. I think the most important thing is talk to your dealer and hope they communicate! Hopefully you've got a good one - I'm fortunate in that two I've spoken to the most are on the up-and-up, share info, and have no markups, no forced trade-in, no forced GM financing, etc.

 

[Polo08816]

I mean, on the Jeep website starting MSRP for the Series I is $88,640.

Without adding a single feature......

Where I live, I do no see a single dealer advertising anywhere below MSRP lol. For any brand of cars.

We've already established that where you live (NY and neighboring states) is your problem. (joking)

The only feature I'd add is the heavy duty trailer tow package. None of the other ones matter to me. Similar to how I'd option a Yukon XL Denali where the only option I must have is the max trailering package. I don't really care how long it'll take to produce or delivery, I will not accept a vehicle without that option.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

I did a ton of research by talking to multiple dealers, scouring websites, watching Youtube clips, and even asking a co-worker's cousin who works at one of the GM factories in Michigan to gather up what info I could. I would just stress that the list is, at best, a fairly educated guess. I think it's important to note the caveat I put in my original post which was supplier shortages, Covid, war, inflation, etc. are all factors that could affect any of these timelines. Nothing is guaranteed.

Covid, for example, is affecting many Chinese suppliers.

War is affecting Xenon gas production in the Ukraine, which supplies some 60-70% of the world's supply needed for lasers that engrave chips.

There was an earthquake in Japan a few weeks ago that temporarily shut down two chip manufacturers. Coincidentally, I asked my local Toyota dealership how many Sequoias they thought they would get and they said, "Probably 1, maybe zero at this point. And don't even ask about the bZ4X."

One interesting tidbit from the YAA stream either yesterday or the day before: they indicated they heard rumblings that various manufacturers are shutting down 2022 production and saving up what they've got for fully-featured 2023 production. This is great news, if true, but until we hear confirmation I wouldn't be on it.

So in summary: let's keep our fingers crossed for a best-case scenario. I think the most important thing is talk to your dealer and hope they communicate! Hopefully you've got a good one - I'm fortunate in that two I've spoken to the most are on the up-and-up, share info, and have no markups, no forced trade-in, no forced GM financing, etc.

If anything, all of the potential issues to slow down things on the production side will only make GM move up their cutoff date for 2022s.

They wouldn’t continue to allow people to order 2022s and extend that production process, which would eat into their 2023 production, especially if their goal is to have every feature available for 2023s.

My gut tells me that in the later part of June, and all of July & August….there will be virtually zero brand new Tahoes or Yukons available to purchase at a dealer lot. And people who are in desperate need of one will be paying heavily over MSRP for a used one. I think it’s going to get so much uglier, regardless of how many Expeditions, Sequoias and Wagoneers are out there for people to look at as an alternative.

 

[Polo08816]

If anything, all of the potential issues to slow down things on the production side will only make GM move up their cutoff date for 2022s.

They wouldn’t continue to allow people to order 2022s and extend that production process, which would eat into their 2023 production, especially if their goal is to have every feature available for 2023s.

My gut tells me that in the later part of June, and all of July & August….there will be virtually zero brand new Tahoes or Yukons available to purchase at a dealer lot. And people who are in desperate need of one will be paying heavily over MSRP for a used one. I think it’s going to get so much uglier, regardless of how many Expeditions, Sequoias and Wagoneers are out there for people to look at as an alternative.

I agree with you because those alternatives wouldn't arrive until August at the earliest. I think the second half of 2023 and 2024 is when the market will change significantly.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

We've already established that where you live (NY and neighboring states) is your problem. (joking)

The only feature I'd add is the heavy duty trailer tow package. None of the other ones matter to me. Similar to how I'd option a Yukon XL Denali where the only option I must have is the max trailering package. I don't really care how long it'll take to produce or delivery, I will not accept a vehicle without that option.

I mean, from reading this site it appears to be a problem in several other states too not just where I live.

Some guy on here admitted he just paid $8k over MSRP for a used High country

But still, regardless of what features you want/don’t want….the Denali XL starting price is almost $14k cheaper than a grand wagoneer…$74,995 vs $88,640

 

[firsttimetahoe]

I agree with you because those alternatives wouldn't arrive until August at the earliest. I think the second half of 2023 and 2024 is when the market will change significantly.

What will change so significantly? Do you really think people are going to buy Toyota’s and Jeeps at the same price point (or more) as a Yukon or a Tahoe would cost them?

Ford has the best chance of eating at GM’s marketshare. I wouldn’t be suprised if the Wagoneer gets discontinued by 2024

 

[Polo08816]

I mean, from reading this site it appears to be a problem in several other states too not just where I live.

Some guy on here admitted he just paid $8k over MSRP for a used High country

But still, regardless of what features you want/don’t want….the Denali XL starting price is almost $14k cheaper than a grand wagoneer…$74,995 vs $88,640

Sounds like he overpaid to me.

I don't see how a Denali XL is $14,000 less than a Grand Wagoneer. It's about $5000 less than a Grand Wagoneer from my research.

You can order a Yukon Denali XL 4wd for about $300 over invoice so about $74k and you can order a Grand Wagoneer for about 6% under invoice so about $79k.