Hard to predict in 2023, but we can take a look at 2021 and 2022 numbers.
For the Cadillac Escalade, these figures include both the standard and extended length wheel base for the entire calendar year. I haven't come across 2022 figures for GM yet.
2020 (pre update) - 24,500 units
2021 - 40,500 units
GM has never sold more than 43,000 units of the Escalade per year.
For the Grand Wagoneer, these figures only include standard length wheel base as the extended length wheel base models are a 2023 model.
2021 Q4 - 2,585 units
2022 Q1 - 3,169 units
The way I read these figures is that even just after starting production and deliveries and not yet offering an extended wheel base model, I wouldn't be surprised if we see the total 2022 production finish with at least 10,000 units, or 25% or more of Cadillac Escalade sales.
Also, the take rate of the long wheel base Grand Wagoneer will be remarkably high in the segment because there are only a few options since manufacturers really need a 1/2 ton pickup chassis to base an extended wheel base full size SUV off of.
I think by 2023, Stellantis will be selling a combination of at least 6,000 units of the short wheel base and long wheel base Grand Wagoneer combined per quarter or 24,000 units per year which is sizable.
Also, Toyota has been selling every single new Tundra they've been producing and it's a decent bit more expensive compared to the outgoing Tundra.
It really depends on whether you know what you're doing and how to repair/maintain your car. If you're like the average clueless car owner, then yes, your car will become a decaying pile of shit after 5 years. My track beater is a 2014 335i with 150,000 miles on the odometer with many of those miles being hard track miles. It feels as if it were new. In fact, if you drove it, you would never think there were that many miles on the car. But the cars that I care about are garaged. If your car sits outside or is parallel parked overnight in an urban area, yes, expect a 2 year old car to look like a worn down 10 year old piece of junk. You're paying the unofficial city tax right there.